Posted by PrestoPundit on 09/10/2008

among married men, 56%-37%; and by 11 points among married women, 52%-41%.  This reflects a 3 point gain for McCain among married women over the consistent numbers of the past few weeks.  This is perhaps the most significant “Palin bounce” in all of the polling data, and the one that could turn the election.

In order for the Republican-leaning married population to defeat the Democrat-leaning unmarrieds — as they did in 2000 and 2004 — Palin and McCain need to push their advantage among married women closer to the massive advantage they now have among married men.

The only other demographic categories where I spotted strong signs of a “Palin bounce” shows up among independent whites, church going whites, and non-hispanic blacks.  Yes, that’s right, believe it or not in the wake of the Republican Convention, Obama is beginning to lose his lock on the black vote.


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