Posted by PrestoPundit on 01/18/2008

in California says Rasmussen.  The significance of this comes from the fact that we’re already voting out here in California  —  I cast my ballot yesterday by mail, others are voting in person at polling stations across the state.  Voting doesn’t begin in California on Super Tuesday — it merely comes to an end here on Super Tuesday. 

Here’s some good news for Romney: “Sixty-three percent (63%) of Romney’s supporters are certain they will
vote for him. That’s a far higher level of commitment than any other
candidate enjoys. Just 45% of McCain’s supporters are that “certain”
along with 54% of those who support Thompson, 45% of Huckabee voters,
and 36% of Giuliani fans.”  I’d say that is open room for a Romney upset in California.  Early voters are more likely to be “certain” voters — and conservative talk radio here in California is already going to work on McCain, beating him up especially as both wrong and dishonest on the most important issue facing California, illegal immigration.

Giuliani has dropped off a cliff here in California, falling from far out in front to 5th place at only 11% support, with only 1 in 3 of these “certain” they’ll actually vote Giuliani.   If you don’t have support on the influential talk radio stations, it takes major money to move opinion in California, and I very much doubt Giuliani will have the sort of cash required to do much to move his numbers.  Guiliani is perceived as weak on illegal immigration, and  he’s getting little support on the radio or from conservative opinion leaders.  A Schwarzenegger endorsement might help Guiliani, but all bets are on a McCain endorsement from Schwarzenegger at some point just before Super Tuesday.  Why Schwarzenegger has held out this long is anyone’s guess — unless the snark about Schwarzenegger impending switch to the Democrat party is actually in the works.  With Schwarzenegger even dumber things have happened.  My  working assumption is that Schwarzenegger is trying to set up a  Senate seat for himself, so whatever would best serve that end is what you’ll find him doing.  I’m not sure how that plays in terms of the Presidential primary.  Maybe no endorsement at all in the primary would be what is best for Arnold.  If it is, that’s what he’ll do.

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